![]() Tropical parts of the world are likely to be least affected, the researchers say.īut without real data over a number of seasons, researchers are relying upon computer modelling to predict what might happen over the course of the year.Įxtrapolating data about Covid-19’s seasonality based on endemic coronaviruses – meaning viruses which have been circulating in human populations for some time – is challenging. Another study has also shown higher temperatures are linked to lower incidence of Covid-19, but notes that temperature alone cannot account for the global variation in incidence.įurther research predicts that temperate warm and cold climates are the most vulnerable to the current Covid-19 outbreak, followed by arid regions. ![]() The initial spread of outbreaks of the new disease around the world seems to suggest it has a preference for cool and dry conditions, although it is worth noting that the virus has since spread to countries with a wide range of climates, including hot humid ones.Īn early analysis comparing the weather in 500 locations around the world where there have been Covid-19 cases seems to suggest a link between the spread of the virus and temperature, wind speed and relative humidity. There are some early hints that Covid-19 may also vary with the seasons. A fourth coronavirus, which was mainly found in patients with reduced immune systems, was far more sporadic. These viruses seemed to cause infections mainly between December and April – a similar pattern to that seen with influenza. The closely related Sars virus that spread in 2003 was also contained quickly, meaning there is little information about how it was affected by the seasons.īut there are some clues from other coronaviruses that infect humans as to whether Covid-19 might eventually become a seasonal disease.Ī study conducted 10 years ago by Kate Templeton, from the Centre for Infectious Diseases at the University of Edinburgh, UK, found that three coronaviruses – all obtained from patients with respiratory tract infections at hospitals and GP surgeries in Edinburgh – showed “ marked winter seasonality”. The virus that causes Covid-19 – which has been officially named Sars-CoV-2 – is still too new to have much firm data on how cases will change with the seasons.
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